Phases and Cycles: Market Outlook – Feb 08, 2024
The “Santa Claus Rally” gave us a neutral outcome; so did the “First Five Days” of the year. That left January to tell the tale, and such a tale. All Indices: the DJI, SPX, NASDAQ and even the TSX; each managed a sizeable rise in January to make it a positive month. Therefore, based on the historic “as January goes, so will the year”, 2024 should be positive.
The question of who will be the President of the United States for the next four years will not be decided until November. Folklore suggests the best outcome would be if neither Mr. Biden nor Mr. Trump would win, as both would be second term Presidents.
OUTLOOK
As the table below shows (courtesy of Investors Intelligence), neither the percentage of stocks above their 10 week Moving Averages (10wMA) nor 30 week Moving Averages (30wMA) have changed significantly. These large numbers suggest that soon or later we should expect a minor correction, possibly during the rest of February. At the same time, the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Investor Sentiment Survey shows a varying rise and fall of the percentage of bulls but they are not significant changes.
The North American markets are in a bullish mode and except for a short period, they should continue to advance, despite all the negative noise emanating from those looking only at interest rates.
Capitalight Research . 130 King Street West, Exchange Tower Suite 1940, Toronto, Ontario M5X 2A2
subscriptions@capitalightresearch.com . Capitalightresearch.com
The contents of this report may NOT be copied, reproduced or distributed without the explicit written consent of Capitalight Research Inc. ©2023, Capitalight Research Inc. All rights reserved
The opinions and projections contained herein are those of Capitalight Research Inc., its principals, associates and employees (collectively “the researchers”) and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable but cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that “the researchers” are to be under no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof. “The researchers” may, from time to time, buy, own or sell securities mentioned herein. “Capitalight Research Inc” is a division IC Capitalight Corp.
The comments contained herein are a general discussion of certain issues intended as general information only and should not be relied upon as tax or legal advice. Please obtain independent professional advice, in the context of your particular circumstances. This newsletter was written, designed and produced by Phases & Cycles Inc. for the benefit of Larry Gaucher who is a Senior Wealth Advisor for iA Private Wealth and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of iA Private Wealth. The information contained in this newsletter comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The information contained herein may not apply to all types of investors. The Investment Advisor can open accounts only in the provinces in which they are registered.
iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates. iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.